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Nolan Bushnell's Crystal Ball

Father of Videogames on Games Past, Present and Future   

Michael Stroud
5.26.05

An enduring memory from my senior year in high school was going to see “Star Wars” at the Old Mill Theaters in Mountain View and playing “Pong” during intermission.

So I got a kick out of hearing “Pong's” inventor Nolan Bushnell keynote last Wednesday on gaming's past, present and future at my Next Gen conference in Los Angeles . Then I split with my boy to watch “Revenge of the Sith” in Westwood.

Bushnell, who founded Atari in 1971, is generally considered the father of modern electronic games. A serial entrepreneur and venture capitalist, he founded Chuck E. Cheese's Pizza Time Theater and more than 20 other companies. He currently is CEO of entertainment software maker uWink.

Here are a few of his critiques about gaming's present and his predictions for the future:

Gaming is isolating. “If you go back 30,000 years, cavemen used to sit across the campfire from each other and play with the knucklebones of animals. Current videogames are very isolating. (Even with online games), you may say you have friends in China , but that's not the same as getting together for sociability. 90 percent of board games are purchased by women trying to bring family together for the experience. Solitaire is the most popular (computer) game. We should take a look at that and ask, `Is that the definition of game play?'”

The Gaming Business Has Shrunk. The actual game business has dropped in a physical sense since 1976. Back then, 40 percent of the population played games. Now less than 15 percent of the population plays games. Games became more violent, so they lost women. (They focused on) 8- 28 (year-old) high-testosterone male players. They became long-form, so they lost players who didn't have 3 ½ hours a night.”

Photorealism ? Good Game Play. “ Experts are looking with bated breath to reaching billions of pixels. As we get down to photorealism, the arms race of more polygons goes away, and we have to pay more attention to game play.”

Sequel-itis. “ I'm worried about the world devolving too quickly to sequels. The thing that drives entertainment forever is newness.”

PC Gaming: China the Next Frontier. “ Zero money is being made in China (in games) because there is no IP control. There is huge money to be made there in RPGs (role-playing games) with secure computers (enabled by emerging software such as Microsoft's Longhorn). That will help rejuvenate the PC game market because there will now be huge markets you can sell PC content to.”

Console Gaming: `Microsoft's to Lose'. (Commenting on the expected release of Microsoft's Xbox 360 by Thanksgiving, months ahead of the Playstation 3.) “Xbox's timing is very good. It's Microsoft's to lose at this point. Sony's making a late entrance. Despite interesting technology, they will struggle a bit.”

Cellphones: Not For Serious Game Play. “ Larger screens will be the de facto choices for people who are serious about game playing. You'll see trinkets on cellphones, but they'll be less important. ”

One exception: “A new series of games will evolve where the cellphones' relationship to physical space will be important. People will come together to play games in proximity. The person who can create that will bring tremendous viral marketing.”

Education is a Huge, Untapped Gaming Market . One third of revenue in three years will be game applications for educational uses. Any company that has a blind eye to that is missing an important way to monetize their IP.”

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